Shipping faces ‘stormy seas’ as trade slows and costs rise

After firm expansion last year, seaborne trade volumes are forecast to rise by just 0.5 per cent in 2025, the slowest pace in years, according to the agency’s Review of Maritime Transport 2025, launched in Geneva.

The slowdown comes as geopolitical tensions, new trade barriers and climate pressures reshape shipping routes, push up costs and expose vulnerabilities in the global economy.

“The transitions ahead – to zero carbon, to digital systems, to new trade routes – must be just transitions,” said UNCTAD Secretary-General Rebeca Grynspan. “They must empower, not exclude. They must build resilience, not deepen vulnerability.”

Routes in flux, costs rising

Shipping carries over 80 per cent of the world’s merchandise for export and import, making it a critical barometer of global commerce.

UNCTAD reported that rerouting caused by crises in the Red Sea in 2024 and continuing tensions near the Strait of Hormuz have forced ships onto longer journeys, adding delays and costs.

At the Geneva launch, Regina Asariotis, Chief of UNCTAD’s Trade Logistics Branch, warned that vulnerable economies are paying the heaviest price:

“The global environment has become more complex. Geopolitical tensions are forcing costly reroutings, tariffs are disrupting trade flows, and freight rates are high and volatile.

Small island developing States, least developed countries, and net food importing nations are the most vulnerable, because higher freight costs quickly translate into more expensive imports and food insecurity.”

Ports under pressure

Global ports are struggling with congestion, longer waiting times and the pressure to modernise. UNCTAD highlighted the urgent need to invest in digital systems such as maritime single windows and port community platforms to cut costs and delays.

But many developing countries continue to lag behind in digitalisation. With cyber threats on the rise, the report warns that cybersecurity has become a critical priority for maritime logistics.

Climate challenge

The shipping industry’s greenhouse gas emissions rose by five per cent in 2024, the report said. Yet only eight per cent of the world fleet’s tonnage is currently equipped to use alternative fuels.

The International Maritime Organization will consider a Net-Zero Framework in October, including a global fuel standard and carbon pricing mechanism. UNCTAD says clear regulatory signals, fleet renewal and new fuel infrastructure are vital to reduce emissions.

Human cost at sea

Beyond trade flows and emissions, the report stressed the human toll. Seafarer abandonment cases reached a record high in 2024, leaving crews stranded without pay or support.

Amendments to the Maritime Labour Convention entering into force in 2027 will strengthen rights to repatriation and shore leave, but UNCTAD stressed that effective enforcement is essential.

Policy priorities

The review calls for governments and industry to work together on:

• Stable trade policies to reduce uncertainty and restore confidence in supply chains;
• Investment in sustainable, green and resilient port and shipping infrastructure;
• Faster digitalisation and stronger cybersecurity;
• Fleet renewal and cleaner fuels; and
• Support for vulnerable economies to mitigate higher costs.

“Persistent high transport costs risk hitting developing countries the hardest,” Ms. Grynspan said. “Maritime transport must be resilient, inclusive and sustainable if we are to weather the turbulent waters ahead.”