Afghanistan crisis deepens as record returns, drought and aid cuts strain economy

Estimates indicate that around 28 million people in Afghanistan were living in poverty in 2025, with the situation compounded by mass population returns, worsening drought and shrinking international aid.

While Afghanistan recorded a second consecutive year of economic growth, real GDP expanded by just 1.9 per cent in 2025, down from 2.3 per cent the previous year. Population growth, however, reached 6.5 per cent, resulting in an estimated 2.1 per cent decline in real GDP per capita.

UNDP’s report, Afghanistan Socioeconomic Review, found that the share of Afghans facing subsistence insecurity remained largely unchanged, but an additional 1.4 million people were pushed into hardship following the return of 2.9 million Afghans during 2025.

‘Country under growing strain’

Millions of families continue struggling to access essentials, including water, food, healthcare, housing, heating and clothing. More than 80 per cent of households are in debt, while nearly three quarters rely on negative coping strategies to manage getting through the day.

“Taking stock of Afghanistan’s socioeconomic reality, this year’s report reveals a country under growing strain,” said Kanni Wignaraja, UNDP Regional Director for Asia and the Pacific.

The scale of returns has added further pressure. Nearly five million Afghans have returned to the country since 2023, many arriving in communities already facing severe economic hardship.

According to UNDP, 92 per cent of recent returnees reported being unable to secure necessities for life, compared with 74 per cent nationally. In provinces hosting the largest numbers of returnees, only 3 per cent of people have formal employment, while 78 per cent rely on casual day labour.

Climate shocks and restrictions on women

The report also highlights worsening climate conditions, with drought affecting 64 per cent of the country last year. Access to adequate drinking water fell sharply, dropping to 44 per cent from 59 per cent in 2024.

At the same time, continuing restrictions on women and girls are further weakening Afghanistan’s economy and labour force.

Nearly 100 decrees issued by the Taliban defacto authorities since 2021 remain in force, limiting women’s access to employment, education and freedom of movement.

Afghanistan’s trade deficit also widened to a record $11.3 billion in 2025, equivalent to roughly 60 per cent of nominal GDP, driven by rising imports and stagnant exports.

Aid cuts worsening humanitarian pressures

Declining international assistance is further compounding the crisis. Total international aid to Afghanistan fell by 16.5 per cent in 2025, even as needs continued to rise.

More than 440 clinics were forced to close or reduce services because of funding shortages, increasing the proportion of people unable to access healthcare from 16 per cent in 2024 to 23 per cent in 2025.

“Across Afghanistan, communities need more than short-term relief. They need a pathway to progress,” said Stephen Rodriques, UNDP Resident Representative in Afghanistan.

“Investing in jobs, services and local markets will help boost household economies and will be essential to give people a real chance to rebuild their lives and regain control over their future.”