If Israel Is Forced to Continue War Alone, America Will Be the Loser

Superpowers like the United States often have difficulty comprehending the concept of “existential threat” — the reality that a country could actually be destroyed.

This danger, and the determination it produces, was eloquently expressed in Prime Minister Golda Meier’s famous quote during the Yom Kippur War, “We have a secret weapon here in Israel… we have nowhere else to go.”

Less well remembered is that at the time, she was speaking to a young Senator Joe Biden.

On Monday, the United States permitted the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) to pass Resolution 2728, demanding an immediate ceasefire in Gaza and return of all hostages. Yet international law and bodies have no impact on Hamas, so the demand to return the hostages has no real-world impact.

For Israel, the war in Gaza has two objectives: the rescue of 134 Israeli hostages and destruction of the Hamas terror organization, an absolutely critical goal for Israel’s long-term safety.

Therefore, the demand for a ceasefire presents a powerful danger.

Monday’s resolution was passed under Chapter 6 of the UN Charter: a demand without an immediate enforcement mechanism. However, if Israel does not comply, the UNSC has the option to follow up with a Chapter 7 resolution, which would have the force of international law and may include crippling sanctions and even direct military action against Israel. (For example, a Chapter 7 resolution triggered the Gulf War against Iraq in 1991.)

If it does not exercise its veto, the United States would become the first nation in history to permit a Chapter 7 resolution against a close ally, which would produce untold consequences for America’s future.

Israel must enter Rafah, the last stronghold of Hamas in Gaza, and the location of most of the remaining hostages, because the Jewish State believes it is the only way to ensure Israel’s safety.

The White House claims that “there are other ways,” to defeat Hamas, though the administration has not explained how.

If America reduces its military support at a critical time, or allows a Chapter 7 enforcement action at the UNSC, then Israel will face existential danger, both from its enemies and from international sanctions. Whether Israel then succeeds in spite of being abandoned — or fails because of it — American credibility will be demolished.

American allies, out of their own self interest, will likely seek alliances with other major powers, such as China and Russia. Meanwhile, America has no shortage of enemies, such as the Houthis in the Red Sea, Russia in Ukraine, Iran with its nuclear program, and the myriad of terror groups looking to attack the US at home. All such enemies will be emboldened, just at a time when America’s alliances are weakened.

Ironically, this UN action has already brought the Middle East farther away from peace rather than closer — because Hamas sees international pressure on Israel as a viable path to potential victory.

Case in point: on Sunday, Israel agreed to an international proposal for the release of some 800 Palestinian prisoners, including violent offenders, in exchange for 40 Israeli hostages, a six week truce, and steps toward a permanent ceasefire. Hamas, which has rejected dozens of ceasefire offers, appeared to be seriously considering the new proposal. Yet just hours after the UNSC resolution, Hamas rejected the proposal outright, dashing international hopes.

There are two possible explanations for this state of affairs between Israel and the US.

President Biden is facing a tough election fight, including a tidal wave of public pressure over civilian casualties in Gaza. This is a highly calculated component of Hamas’ strategy to defeat Israel through international pressure. While civilian casualties are disturbing, much of the accepted narrative is simply untrue.

Even at a risk to Israeli troops, the Jewish State has taken unprecedented measures to protect civilians, and the results speak for themselves: the civilian to combatant casualty ratio, at close to 1:1, is the lowest in history for a conflict of this type.

Furthermore, the total casualty count is orders of magnitude lower than other conflicts in the region, such as Syria, Yemen, and Iraq.

Numerous other conspiracy theories including that Israel shelled hospitals, have proven to be outright false. Nonetheless, Hamas’ war of propaganda has been effective, not just against Israel directly, but also as a factor in the US elections.

Another possibility is that the tension is personal: Prime Minister Netanyahu and Presidents Obama and Biden have long disagreed. Indeed, Monday’s resolution does seem reminiscent of the 2016 UNSC resolution 2334, widely seen in Israel as a “parting shot” by President Obama against Prime Minister Netanyahu. Democratic Senator Chuck Schumer also called for Israel to hold early elections and thereby oust its prime minister (a rare statement when speaking to a close and democratic ally), which further supports the idea that tensions may be personal.

Hamas’ continued existence is an existential threat to Israel — and its leaders have promised to carry out October 7 style massacres “again and again.” Yet the White House has underestimated just how powerful an existential threat can be. No amount of pressure or leverage, even from a powerful ally, can compete with the possibility of utter destruction.

Israel may be forced to go it alone, and America will lose either way.

Daniel Pomerantz is an expert in international law, an adjunct professor at Reichman and Bar Ilan Universities in Israel, and the CEO of RealityCheck, an nonprofit NGO dedicated to clarifying global conversations with verifiable data. Daniel lives in Tel Aviv, Israel and can be found on Instagram at @realitycheckresearch or at www.RealityCheckResearch.org.