From drought to deluge: ‘Super’ El Niño’s expanding reach

The 2026-2027 El Niño is forecast to become one of the strongest on record, threatening to intensify drought, floods and other weather extremes across countries already grappling with food insecurity, displacement and economic pressures.

Children on the frontlines, again

El Niño can shift rainfall patterns thousands of kilometres from the tropical Pacific, leaving some regions facing drought and water shortages while others contend with heavier rains, flooding and heightened disease risks.

More than 347 million children in nearly 100 countries and territories could be exposed to unusually dry or wet conditions between October and December because of El Niño, the UN Children’s Fund (UNICEF) warns in a new analysis.

“For children, El Niño is far more than a weather pattern. It can mean increased displacement, malnutrition, water shortages and disease outbreaks,” said UNICEF Executive Director Catherine Russell. “Children are also at risk of schools closing, while families could experience added financial hardship.”

Already, 1.1 billion children – nearly half of the world’s children – are already exposed to at least three overlapping climate-related hazards such as drought, extreme heat or floods.

In Papua New Guinea, impact is already here

Some of those consequences are already visible in Papua New Guinea, a mountainous Pacific island nation where remote terrain and difficult logistics have complicated responses to previous droughts. El Niño conditions have been present since mid-2026 and are forecast to peak between October and December.

In September, the Niño 3.4 index – a measure of sea-surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific used to track El Niño – surpassed those recorded during every previous El Niño event, including 1997 and 2015.

The Government, which declared the event in June, has established a dedicated task force and approved a $112 million supplementary budget.

Yet, needs are mounting.

Some 1.2 million people are estimated to require direct food relief, with water shortages, crop losses, dwindling food reserves and higher prices already reported. Schools are being disrupted and concerns are growing over health, nutrition and bushfires.

The largest impacts on agriculture and food security are expected from November.

One ocean, very different extremes

What dries out one part of the world can bring deluges to another.

Across the Greater Horn of Africa, wetter-than-normal conditions could raise the risk of river and flash flooding, increase the spread of waterborne diseases and disrupt schooling.

In the wider region – including Yemen, Sudan and Afghanistan – children living amid conflict and displacement face particularly acute risks because El Niño can magnify existing hunger, malnutrition and difficulties accessing essential services.

A race to act early

For governments, the forecasts offer something disasters often do not: time.

Asia and the Pacific is expected to bear a particularly large share of the exposure, with some 190 million children – more than half of the global total identified by UNICEF – living in areas forecast to experience unusually wet or dry conditions between October and December.

The World Food Programme (WFP) is urging countries across the region to strengthen social protection systems that can rapidly expand when droughts, floods or economic shocks threaten household food security.

“A flood, drought, or sudden economic shock can wipe out a family’s progress in a matter of days,” said Samir Wanmali, WFP Regional Director for Asia and the Pacific. “Social protection systems that are inclusive, nutrition-sensitive and ready to expand during a crisis can prevent a temporary shock from becoming a lasting setback.”

Lessons from a not-so-distant past

The urgency is sharpened by lessons from earlier El Niño episodes.

In analysis published in May, the UN Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP) pointed to the 2015-16 event as a warning of how climate extremes can cascade through economies and societies. 

More than 70 per cent of Southeast Asia’s land area experienced drought during that episode, exposing more than 200 million people to severe drought at its peak.

The pressures this time are unfolding against tighter government finances, elevated debt and persistent economic uncertainty and supply chain worries, potentially reducing the ability of governments and households to absorb another shock.

Warmer world raises the stakes

Meanwhile, climate change is raising the baseline risk. Higher temperatures accelerate the loss of moisture from soil and vegetation, potentially intensifying drought when rainfall falls short.

For governments, that means preparing for extremes in both directions – from failing rains, water shortages and crop losses to intense rainfall, flooding and landslides. The challenge is to turn forecasts into decisions before harvests fail, reservoirs run low or floods force families from their homes.

That will be the focus of a regional El Niño exchange beginning on next week in Bangkok, bringing governments, meteorological experts, UN agencies and frontline practitioners together to compare emerging impacts and lessons from previous crises.

For Papua New Guinea, however, the warning period is already giving way to impact. 

Water shortages, damaged crops and rising prices offer an early glimpse of what an exceptional El Niño could mean far beyond the warming waters of the Pacific.