Economic growth of 0.4 percent in Q4 2023 | Statistics Netherlands (CBS)

Growth was slightly higher than in the first estimate. Public consumption in particular was adjusted upwards, partly due to higher expenditure by municipalities. However, the trade balance for services was adjusted downwards. The overall picture has not changed: growth in Q4 can mainly be attributed to household consumption.

Second estimate

The second estimate is conducted 85 days after the end of the quarter. The first estimate is calculated 45 days after the end of the quarter, and is based on the most recent data available at that point. Following the first estimate, new information about the state of the Dutch economy continues to pour in, including data on the construction sector, business services, hotels and restaurants, the public sector, the care sector and the financial sector. These data are added and new calculations are carried out.

On average, over the five-year period of 2018-2023, the difference between the final estimate and the first estimate was 0.1 percentage points in absolute terms, but ranged between -0.3 and 0.7 percentage points, both of which occurred in 2021.

Quarter-on-quarter growth adjustment

With each new estimate, CBS also recalculates the seasonally adjusted series of previously published quarters. When conducting the second estimate for Q4, CBS also adjusts the first three quarters on the basis of the most recent data. The quarter-on-quarter GDP growth rate for Q3 2023 has been revised for Q3: from -0.3 to -0.2 percent. The first two quarters of 2023 have not been revised.

Growth relative to Q4 2022

Year on year, GDP decreased by 0.4 percent in Q4. In the first estimate, that decrease was 0.5 percent. In the year-on-year growth figures, public consumption and investments have been adjusted upwards, while the trade balance has been adjusted downwards.

Furthermore, growth in Q1 has been adjusted from 1.9 to 1.8 percent and the contraction in Q2 has been adjusted from 0.2 to 0.1 percent.

Dutch economy grew by 0.1 percent in 2023

Annual GDP growth for 2023 was 0.1 percent. In the first estimate, the growth rate was also calculated to be 0.1 percent. Growth over 2023 was mainly due to higher public consumption.

56 thousand new jobs

The second estimate shows that the number of people in employment or self-employment increased by 56 thousand in Q4 2023 compared to Q3 2023. According to the first estimate the increase was 45 thousand jobs.

Furthermore, the second estimate for Q4 2023 suggested a year-on-year increase in the number of people in employment or self-employment was 114 thousand, versus 96 thousand according to the first estimate.

Job figures are adjusted when additional information becomes available. The figures for the first three quarters of 2023 have also been adjusted on the basis of the most recent data. Overall, the number of number of people in employment and self-employment increased by 179 thousand on average in 2023.