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The Business Cycle Tracer is a tool to monitor the state and the cycle of the Dutch economy. It presents a coherent macroeconomic picture of the past month or quarter, based on all the figures published by CBS. However, it does not apply equally to all households, enterprises or regions.

Business Cycle Tracer indicator (unweighted average of the indicators, excluding GDP, in the CBS Business Cycle Tracer)
2017 January 0.22
2017 February 0.29
2017 March 0.33
2017 April 0.37
2017 May 0.42
2017 June 0.46
2017 July 0.48
2017 August 0.55
2017 September 0.59
2017 October 0.63
2017 November 0.7
2017 December 0.74
2018 January 0.78
2018 February 0.83
2018 March 0.86
2018 April 0.86
2018 May 0.87
2018 June 0.87
2018 July 0.85
2018 August 0.85
2018 September 0.85
2018 October 0.82
2018 November 0.82
2018 December 0.78
2019 January 0.73
2019 February 0.7
2019 March 0.66
2019 April 0.63
2019 May 0.61
2019 June 0.58
2019 July 0.56
2019 August 0.52
2019 September 0.49
2019 October 0.47
2019 November 0.42
2019 December 0.51
2020 January 0.39
2020 February 0.32
2020 March 0.21
2020 April -0.34
2020 May -1.03
2020 June -1.98
2020 July -2
2020 August -1.32
2020 September -1.17
2020 October -0.96
2020 November -0.9
2020 December -0.65
2021 January -0.75
2021 February -0.98
2021 March -0.93
2021 April -0.79
2021 May -0.55
2021 Juni -0.38
2021 Juli -0.1
2021 August 0.29
2021 September 0.36
2021 October 0.44
2021 November 0.53
2021 December 0.56
2022 January 0.52
2022 February 0.2
2022 March 0.36
2022 April 0.44
2022 May 0.58
2022 June 0.59
2022 July 0.5
2022 August 0.46
2022 September 0.33
2022 October 0.18
2022 November 0.1
2022 December -0.02
2023 January -0.14
2023 February -0.28
2023 March -0.4
2023 April -0.52
2023 May -0.67

Consumers almost as negative, manufacturers less positive

Consumers are almost as pessimistic in May as they were in the previous month. However, consumer confidence is low and well below the long-term average over the past two decades. Producer confidence deteriorated again in May, but was above its long-term average.

Consumer and producer confidence (seasonally adjusted)
2019 January 0 5.8
2019 February -2 6.3
2019 March -4 6.1
2019 April -3 6.7
2019 May -3 4.7
2019 June 0 3.3
2019 July 2 3.9
2019 August 0 3.9
2019 September -2 3.3
2019 October -1 3.6
2019 November -2 2.8
2019 December -2 2.9
2020 January -3 2.5
2020 February -2 3.7
2020 March -2 0.2
2020 April -22 -28.7
2020 May -31 -25.1
2020 June -27 -15.1
2020 July -26 -8.7
2020 August -29 -5.4
2020 September -28 -4.8
2020 October -30 -5.6
2020 November -26 -3.8
2020 December -20 -0.4
2021 January -19 0.6
2021 February -19 0.1
2021 March -18 3.4
2021 April -14 6.5
2021 May -9 8.8
2021 June -3 11.5
2021 July -4 12.3
2021 August -6 9.6
2021 September -5 11.1
2021 October -10 12.3
2021 November -19 12.7
2021 December -25 10.2
2022 January -28 9
2022 February -30 8.5
2022 March -39 8.7
2022 April -48 10.8
2022 May -47 9.9
2022 June -50 8.1
2022 July -51 8.4
2022 August -54 4.6
2022 September -59 2.6
2022 October -59 2.5
2022 November -57 3
2022 December -52 3.3
2023 January -49 3.6
2023 February -44 3.7
2023 March -39 4
2023 April -37 3
2023 May -38 2.1

Household consumption, export and investments up

Households spent 0.8 percent more in March 2023 year on year, adjusted for price changes and shopping-day pattern. They spent more on services, but less on goods.

In March 2023, the total volume (working-day adjusted) of goods exports was up by 2.4 percent year on year. The increase was mainly seen in exports of petroleum products, machinery and appliances, and transport equipment.

The volume of investments in tangible fixed assets was up by 4.4 percent year on year. This is mainly due to more investments in buildings and passenger cars.

Manufacturing output 4 percent down in March

In March 2023, the average daily output of the Dutch manufacturing industry was 4.0 percent lower than in March 2022. Output also contracted year on year in the first two months of 2023.

More bankruptcies in April

The number of corporate bankruptcies, adjusted for court session days, has increased. There were 26 more bankruptcies in April than in the previous month. This is an increase of 12 percent. The number of bankruptcies remained below the pre-pandemic level.

House prices over 4 percent lower in April

In April, owner-occupied dwellings (excluding new constructions) were on average 4.4 percent cheaper than in April 2022. In the previous month, the year-on-year decline was 2.3 percent.

Fewer hours worked, fewer unemployed, equal number of vacancies

In Q1 2023, the number of hours worked, adjusted for seasonal effects, was 0.4 percent lower than in Q4 2022. Total hours worked by employees and self-employed people over Q1 2023 amounted to over 3.6 billion.

At the end of March, there were 437 thousand unfilled vacancies, just as many as at the end of December 2022. This stabilisation follows two quarters of decline.

In April 2023, 343 thousand people aged 15 to 74 years were unemployed. The unemployment rate in that month stood at 3.4 percent. From February through April, unemployment increased by an average of 6 thousand per month.

In Q4 2022, turnover at temporary employment and job placement agencies rose by 1.8 percent relative to the previous quarter.

Economic contraction 0.7 percent in Q1 2023

According to the first quarterly estimate, in Q1 2023 gross domestic product (GDP) decreased by 0.7 percent relative to the previous quarter. In Q4 2022, GDP rose by 0.4 percent. The contraction in the first quarter of 2023 is mainly due to a decline in the trade balance and to increased gas withdrawals from storage facilities.

GDP (volume), seasonally adjusted
2016 Quarter 1 101.2
2016 Quarter 2 101.4
2016 Quarter 3 102.6
2016 Quarter 4 103.4
2017 Quarter 1 104
2017 Quarter 2 104.9
2017 Quarter 3 105.6
2017 Quarter 4 106.4
2018 Quarter 1 106.9
2018 Quarter 2 107.6
2018 Quarter 3 107.8
2018 Quarter 4 108.3
2019 Quarter 1 109
2019 Quarter 2 109.5
2019 Quarter 3 109.9
2019 Quarter 4 110.4
2020 Quarter 1 108.8
2020 Quarter 2 100.1
2020 Quarter 3 106.4
2020 Quarter 4 106.3
2021 Quarter 1 106.7
2021 Quarter 2 110.5
2021 Quarter 3 112.3
2021 Quarter 4 112.7
2022 Quarter 1 113.3
2022 Quarter 2 116.3
2022 Quarter 3 116
2022 Quarter 4 116.5
2023 Quarter 1 115.8

Source of original article: Statistics Netherlands (CBS) (www.cbs.nl).
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